Haryana & J&K Election Exit Poll Updates: Key Insights on Poll Results and Projections
Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election Exit Poll Results 2024
The exit polls for Haryana’s 2024 assembly elections indicate a significant shift in political power. According to the C-Voter poll aired by India Today on October 5, the Congress is expected to make substantial gains, with projections showing a 44% vote share—an increase of 16% from 2019. The party is predicted to win 50-58 out of the 90 seats, leaving the ruling BJP with only 20-28 seats. Meanwhile, other parties are expected to capture 10-16 seats. The Congress’ surge in vote share has come largely at the expense of smaller parties like Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, which is facing a sharp decline.
Despite the BJP holding on to its 37% vote share from the last elections, the 10-year-old ruling party is expected to face significant losses. In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured 40 seats and formed a coalition government with the JJP, which had won 10 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress had managed to win only 30 seats in 2019.
Former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda remains the most favored candidate for the CM position, with 31% popularity, followed by Nayab Singh Saini (22%) and Deepender Hooda (10%).
In the Ambala Cant constituency, BJP’s Anil Vij is reportedly facing a close contest, according to the polls.
Jammu & Kashmir Exit Polls 2024: Congress-NC Alliance Leads
Exit polls also predict a strong showing for the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. The coalition is projected to win 40-48 of the 90 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 27-32 seats. Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP may emerge as a potential kingmaker, with an estimated 6-12 seats.
Breaking it down regionally, the BJP is likely to maintain its dominance in Jammu, winning 27-31 seats, while the Congress-NC alliance may secure 11-15 seats. In the Kashmir Valley, where 47 of the 90 seats are located, the Congress-NC is projected to win 29-33 seats, continuing their lead. The BJP, which holds a marginal presence in the Valley, contested only 62 of the 90 seats.
The Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections were held in three phases, whereas Haryana’s election occurred in a single phase. While J&K saw a multi-cornered contest with several regional players such as Altaf Bukhari’s Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party in the fray, Haryana’s elections were largely a two-horse race between the Congress and BJP.
BJP’s Stronghold in Jammu: Exit Polls Breakdown
In Jammu, the BJP is projected to secure 27-31 seats, while the Congress-NC may win 11-15 seats. The PDP’s performance is expected to remain low, with 0-2 seats in the region. The BJP is also projected to achieve a 41% vote share, compared to 36% for the Congress-NC alliance. The PDP’s vote share is expected to drop to 5%.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP won 25 seats, while the PDP became the largest party with 28 seats. The NC followed with 15 seats, and the Congress lagged behind with only 12 seats.
Implications of Nominated MLAs in J&K’s Assembly
One major development that could impact the formation of the next government in J&K is the nomination of five MLAs by the Lieutenant Governor, following a recommendation from the Home Ministry. The nominations could play a key role in determining the majority threshold, which will increase to 48 seats, as the assembly expands to 95 members due to the changes in the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act of 2019.
The Congress has opposed this nomination process ahead of the government formation, citing concerns over its influence on the assembly’s future dynamics.
Haryana’s Political Landscape: BJP’s Challenge and Congress’ Opportunity
In Haryana, the BJP is fighting to retain power while the Congress is aiming to reclaim the state. In addition to these two main contenders, Dushyant Chautala’s JJP, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, and Abhay Singh Chautala’s INLD are also in the fray. The Congress has formed alliances within the INDIA bloc, ceding the Bhiwani seat to CPI(M), while the BJP has aligned with Haryana Lokhit Party leader Gopal Kanda in Sirsa.
The stakes are high for both parties, with the exit polls suggesting a major power shift in the state’s political landscape.
